Analisis Forex & Kajian: 10.01.2023 - Bitcoin approaches an...

10.01.2023 01:12 PM

Bitcoin approaches an important resistance level: is a local correction expected ahead?

Bitcoin retains the upward momentum it received at the beginning of the new week. The asset managed to break through several key resistance levels, which allowed it to build up bullish potential and continue to move to local highs.

Among the probable reasons for the upward movement of Bitcoin is an improvement in the macroeconomic situation and the activation of various categories of investors. This process is associated with the situation in China, where all covid restrictions have been finally lifted.

The end of another round of the fight against coronavirus in China provoked an explosive reaction in Asian markets. Analysts predict that in the coming weeks we should expect the growth of the main Asian indices by 10%–15%, as well as the strengthening of the yuan.

The activation of the Asian markets also caused a price increase in the energy market, namely oil. Brent and West Texas rose 1.2% as a direct result of more active Asian investors. How positive this process will be for the cryptocurrency market is not yet clear, but the global economy has definitely received investment injections.

Another probable reason for the growth of Bitcoin quotes is the cyclical nature of the cryptocurrency halving procedure. According to the latest charts, the asset is approaching the final stage of price decline and begins a recovery movement towards local highs.

Bitcoin and S&P 500

A powerful buying bar following the results of last Friday is also called the reason for the growth of Bitcoin quotes, which strengthened the correlation with the stock index. However, as of January 10, the SPX quotes sharply retreated and rolled back to the $3,900 level.

The technical metrics of the financial instrument indicate further downward movement. Stochastic has formed a bearish crossover, and therefore there is a high probability that the current trading day will end below yesterday's high.

It is likely that the fall in SPX is also associated with the activation of Asian markets, and therefore, we should expect American investors to try to buy off the fall after 13:00 UTC. In any case, the sell-off of American indices by Asian investors may have a negative impact on the price movement of Bitcoin.

BTC/USD Analysis

Bitcoin continues its upward movement, and as of January 10, the asset reached the $17.2k level. Following the results of the last trading day, the asset retested the level of $17.3k, but the price was pushed back to the local support zone $17.2k. Bitcoin holds positions near this mark, but there is a possibility of correction.

The entire section of the path from $16.4k to $17.3k went almost without corrections, closing at least above the previous day's high. This indicates local overheating and a possible correction of the cryptocurrency in the next few days.

The $17.3k level is the key resistance level on the way to $17.4k–$17.8k. This is the opening level on December 16, when Bitcoin formed one of the largest red candles over the past three months. Therefore, with the current volumes, buyers will not be able to gain a foothold above this level.

The price movement on the 4-hour chart confirms the strength of the sellers near the $17.3k level. At the same time, the stochastic is forming another bullish crossover after a local recovery pause. This indicates another retest of the $17.3k level, which will most likely end with a local correction.

Results

The key task for BTC in the coming days will be the final consolidation and retention of the $17k level. The cryptocurrency market is approaching a series of important announcements from the Fed. Today, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech regarding the regulator's policy in 2023.

Given this level, volatility will increase, and the stock and crypto markets will react to Powell's theses. An increase in volatility and sharp price movements is expected, therefore, the key task for BTC will be to hold the $17k level in order to continue rising.

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